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Today’s introduction comes from International Payments Specialist Jan Borgelt, who reflects on the Reserve Bank’s announcement yesterday to keep the official cash rate at 2.5%.
When we look into the accompanying statement it is clear the RBNZ is very close to pulling the trigger on the OCR. They site:
- Strong consumer and business confidence
- A rise in consumption and household demand
- A housing shortage which has seen a rise in construction activity with a high risk that rising construction costs will feed through to the broader economy adding to inflationary pressures
- An annual CPI inflation rate of 1.6% in 2013 with an expectation this will continue to rise towards their 2% target
- A 3.5% rise in GDP over the year to September – economic growth is expected to continue at around this rate over the next year too
The Reserve Bank did balance this rather hawkish assessment of the N.Z economy with comments about expecting agricultural export prices to come off their peak and uncertainty about the timing of the withdrawal of the US stimulus package and its effects, especially on emerging markets.
On the exchange rate they continue to try and talk the value of the Kiwi down saying it does not believe “the current level of the exchange rate is sustainable in the long run”.
- There is a need to return interest rates to more normal levels
- They expect to start this adjustment soon
- The scale and speed of the rise depends on future economic indicators
When assessing the outlook for the Kiwi dollar there are many factors to consider both domestically and internationally. Rather than comment on them in detail, at a high level, as we see it:
The USD is likely to continue to strengthen, keeping a lid on the Kiwi on any rallies to 85 cents. It will be difficult for the recent range between 0.8100 and 0.8500 to break but we feel, despite interest rate rises this year, the main risk is for the NZD/USD to eventually break (most likely in the second half of the year) below 80.
In just over 3 months the AUD/NZD cross rate has fallen from 1.1580 to trade below 1.0500, a 10% gain in the Kiwi. Most of the work though has been done by a weaker Aussie dollar. The combination of a weaker Aussie and sideways Kiwi is likely to continue. With the AUD/USD heading below 85 cents a rate of 1 for AUD/NZD is a real possibility by mid-year.
The rate has been trading sideways in the range 1.60 to 1.66 and we expect this to continue.
This is a very brief outlook. The environment is dynamic and we can provide much more detailed company specific advice.
I wish you all every business success in 2014.
Editor’s note – we say a very big farewell to Derek Williams of Superair who after 60 years in the aerial applications space is retiring today. We also extend our condolences to Bev Webb wife of our President who recently lost her father .
Member "must knows"
Protecting and Enhancing your interests
Telling Our Story
Value ADD for members
Member "must knows"
A break through with CAA on medical matters
– contrary to what some are saying in circulating emails, we are focused on getting the problem of these OTT charges resolved. We attempted the petition route which, if granted, would have given a competitive alternative product provided by CASA. As you know this was declined but after some good old jaw boning, its now back on the agenda click here
for our letter and the Director’s response:
Thank you for the attached letter regarding the possible recognition by NZ CAA of foreign medical certificates. As you know the current Civil Aviation Rules only provide a very limited ability to do this associated with:
As expressed in my letter (DW1257209-0 dated 5 Feb 2013) in which I declined the AIA’s 1 Nov 2012 application for an exemption from the requirement to hold a NZ medical certificate for any pilot holding an Australian medical certificate, there are significant public policy issues involved in the blanket recognition of foreign medical certificates. Nevertheless, I think that there is merit in investigating the issue further and have initiated a policy project to do so. My intent is that project reports to me in April 2014 in time to influence the CAA’s submissions to the Ministry of Transport on the content of the 2014/15 Civil Aviation Rules Contract if that is appropriate.
1080 it’s a precision business -
- the issue of a validation permit for a foreign pilot licence; or
- the issue of a NZ Private Pilot Licence where the issue is on the basis of a valid foreign pilot licence.
NZHA and AAA have come out fighting on this issue supporting DoC, Fish and Bird and expert comment on the aerial application of this substance. This is in response to uninformed nation wide comments on TV by certain groups who want the conservation estate protected exclusively for their own use click here
Industry Training and Apprenticeship Training Bill –
this week Aviation New Zealand appeared before the Science and Education select committee.
In summary we are largely supportive of government proposals except in so far as they change the role of ITO’s and add some attendant governance and quality assurance compliance costs. In our view and those of many others, this Bill assumes that government agencies know more about quality assurance and good governance than industry itself – this is a big leap of faith. The down side, if the Bill proceeds, is we end up paying for another agency to provide more QA over the governance activities of our already highly competent ITO, ServiceIQ, and we end up paying more for no value add.
The committee has undertaken to look at our concerns re the changed wording to employment agreements which may or may not exclude the sole trader contract scenario which many of our apprentices are presently engaged under.
New product – Lift pod - available in New Zealand –
the safest piece of kit for those undertaking aerial maintenance and overhaul. Demonstrated in this YouTube clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBEqbWVfMIA
The LiftPod Model FS80 has a platform maximum height of 2.32m giving an effective working height of 4.32m. Platform Capacity is 150kgs. The base width on this model is 1040mm and the unit has a total weight of 63kgs. Assembly time (once you’ve got a bit of practice in) is claimed to be 30 seconds (we manage about 40 seconds but are still learning). The current investment for the JLG FS 80 LiftPod would be NZ$4,000.00 + GST ex-stock Auckland C/W LiftPod Powerpack
They require a Safety Certificate (which we organise) and a test and tag which is done 6 monthly. These are passed on at cost.
The unit meets or exceeds the requirements of AS/NZS1418-10:2011
Speak to Alan at email@example.com
Ph 03 347 8690 - Fax Ph 03 347 8691
the trial continues. One of the interesting revelations was the very different safety management and licensing systems being operated by main stream commercial aviation although when you think back to a very recent accident in the adventure aviation sector there are some close parallels. For us, the big question is: will we see more of this type of litigation – I know many of you say to me in these scenarios companies deserve the book thrown at them but remember, in this instance, it is the surviving spouse that is on trial – a very salutary message for small “mum and dad” firms.
Parliamentary Questions New Zealand Air Force—Purchase of American Aircraft click here
Protecting and Enhancing your Interests
3 February 2014 National Airspace and Air Navigation Plan submissions due
the first phase of submissions on potential changes to the Civil Aviation Act will close. MOT will then circulate a consultative document, post consideration by Ministers.
7 March GD on Colour Vision
- submissions now due 7 March. Delay due research on CAA's policies of earlier decades
Telling Our Story
Conference 2014 – Napier "Practical, Innovative, Professional – New Zealand’s aviation industry”
Update AEANZ composite structures and aging aircraft programme
to be held 20-24 July (click here) for more detail – these are highly successful courses and were well attended last year
Event key dates:
- NZAAA 20-22 July “Pilots in perspective”
- AvNZ AGM 23 July 10.00am
- Young peoples’ aviation expo 23 July
- All other divisions PM 22 July to 24 July
- Welcome Social’s Valley D’Vine
- Wrap up gala event 24 July – Napier Convention Centre
Napier War Memorial Convention centre
Hotel bookings click here –
Te Pania is across the road – 1 minutes walk from the conference centre and the Viceroy’s a 5 minute wander through the beautiful art deco city of Napier
Trade bookings click here
a big thank you to HAI in the US for being our first paid trade registration. They have their booth reserved.
Sponsorships click here
– essentially the total sponsorship amount ensure conference operates at a profit so it is critical we get those contributions flowing in
for product or product launch email us directly. Unless you are a sponsor or involved in our trade display there will be an up front charge of $750 plus GST to speak for 15 minutes.
coming soon, prices held at Dunedin’s standard rate.
- congratulations to three companies which have reaccreditation confirmed: Wanaka Helicopters, Reid Helicopters and Precision Helicopters. Just a quick reminder; accessing our programme at member rates requires payment and on-going membership of the organisation. If you do not pay the membership subscription then we can’t issues the accreditation certificate.
Membership endorsement of codes of practice – we invited you last week to provide feedback on the issue of codes regulation so that we could clarify your views with Minister Smith. Well, from the feedback so far, we’d say that industry prefers industry developed and industry lead codes over regulatory intervention but does recognise in certain specific instances (e.g. drugs and alcohol, safety management systems) that the State should intervene and regulate. Please keep on feeding back your view
Productivity Council – the work on Regulatory Institutions and Practices is progressing and its good to see aviation had its fair share of submitters. We’ve previously circulated Aviation New Zealand’s submission and now attached is submissions from Air NZ click here
, Airports NZ click here
, BARNZ click here
, CAA click here
, MOT click here
, Maritime NZ click here
The American Association of Airport Executives is having its international conference at the Intercontinental Hotel in Wellington from 10 to 12 February. There are a number of international and New Zealand based speakers. Conference participants are coming from North America and Australia – a real mix of government, airport management and airport suppliers. For more info: http://events.aaae.org/sites/120203/index.cfm
This week we met a government delegation from Thailand to talk about the structure of the aviation training industry in New Zealand. The visit, organised by Education NZ, was looking at training in a number of sectors in New Zealand. CAA and ASPEQ participated in our meeting and the group also met ServiceIQ. Some interesting prospects in commercialising what we do in New Zealand.
Next week we’re with a small government delegation from Indonesia. This is a follow on to the mission we ran with NZTE in Jakarta last May and some other educational work undertaken by NZTE, with industry input, in Jakarta in November. We see strengthening government to government ties unlocking more commercial opportunities. In this context, it has been great to see the commercial successes that have resulted from that May visit to Indonesia, and the actions underway by some companies to generate more business.
Value add for members
Southern Cross medical assurance
- we will be announcing a package agreement within the next fortnight focused at businesses and provision of subsidised health care. If you’re interested in being first on the list, let us know – the deal is very worthwhile!!!!!
Aviation Safety Supplies Ltd
have released a new product, a low cost Iridium Tracking Device
For more info see http://www.beacons.co.nz/iridium-tracking-device-xidc104368.html
Get a GO FUEL fuel card and get *8 cents per litre discount off pump price on Petrol and Diesel
Just click here
and complete a form or call direct and we’ll complete it for you
Get going - go to gofuel.co.nz
N3 Trade Card click here
- if you are a member and you haven't got your card let us know. The savings more than offset membership costs.
OTHER Aviation NZ members deals